Life lessons

Do you have feel like you do the same things in life over and over again in numerous aspects? When I do something for the first time I research it to death, make sure I do as good a job as I can at it, and am very focused on what I am doing. In general when I do those things I succeed. This is in and of itself a marvelous thing... however once I do something and succeed at it I either get overconfident or lackadaisical and then start to suck at it.

It happens in poker, sports betting and in life and it leads to a rather vicious cycle of succeeding at something, then failing, then re-analyzing and succeeding again, etc.

Sports betting has gone into the failing cycle as I was/am becoming very confident and betting on too many games in too many ways. The end result is an 8 day losing streak that really sucks! The good news is it has been counter-balanced by a good run in poker where I have re-analzyed my play and really improved. I have started to play more within myself and wait for my spots. I managed to cash back to back tournaments last week and have been doing very well at the cash games.

The one thing I have really improved on is quitting. Giving up on a hand when I THINK I am beat but don't want to be (a big problem I have... I want to win the hand, even though I know I am losing). Also, a huge part of poker is confidence and when you are playing with a lot of confidence the other people believe you.

In the past 2 weeks I made a guy lay down QQ on a 9 high no flush, no straight board as he was 100% sure I had flopped a set. I thought he had AK and my 5 I hit was good... the reality was it didn't matter because I had a HUGE amount of confidence in my hand and he believed me. Another hand I made a woman lay down the same exact hand I did, simply by believing my hand was better. (actually made the same lady lay down basically the same hand as I had twice in less than an hour).

The key to just about everything in life is confidence, confidence in yourself, confidence in your play, confidence in your decisions. Many times your decisions are poor... but even then if you have confidence in them and keep your head about you you can turn poor decisions (such as pushing all in with 4-5 suited on a 9-5-2 board against Q-Q) into good results. Then you just have to keep yourself from getting OVER confident which is the fine line I have to walk and one which is (and probably always will be) a challenge for me. So far I have been keeping over-confidence out of my poker game, and I have to keep focused on that. I also have to remember that even though I may know more about poker and in fact be a better player than them.. I don't have to show them that EVERY hand.. it is ok to let a few get away, pick your spots as they say.

I have been playing a little more poker lately with a couple of runs at the trasure island tournament and a couple of Venentians. My last venetian I went really deep but just missed the money finishing 28th out of 140 but they paid 18.

I played exceptionally well and patient, except for one thing. When I have a good hand but a bad flop I WANT to win the pot. I just couldn't back off the hand and ended up giving away a lot of chips. At the 3rd break I had 15K and I had given away 20K just because I wanted to win the chips.. I can be so patient pre-flop picking my spots, and staying out of trouble. Then I get into a hand and all that goes out the window.

I played Treasure Island on Wednesday night and did much better, keeping my nose clean and riding some nice conservative play (and a nice suckout with 22 vs AA) into the final table and a 4 way chop. Add this in with a nice win in the cash game this past weekend and I finished this week up. Been awhile since that happened and hopefully I can keep it rolling this weekend.

Sports betting is going well as well, hitting 3 out of 4 second halves and only missing the Neworleans 2nd half on a stupid late FG when they were trying to run out the clock and "accidently" got into FG range and kicked it.

I have started watching for a very specific 2nd half situation which is cashing at a monsterous rate. Large favorites who are trailing at the half, this bet has been super-money so far and I expect it to continue. It isn't a surpise for a big favorite to lose, but they normally find a way to come back and make it close. Perfect examples this past weekend Oakland led SD 15-0. SD was a 9 pt favorite. I got SD -7 for the 2nd half.. no way Oakland beats SD by more than a TD, they might end up winning by 3, but SD *IS* going to come back. Same thing on the Dallas/Washington game.

Looking forward to a big weekend of Poker at the venetian and some nice football. GOO ALABAMA! I want a rematch in the SEC championship game bitches!

Hilton Football and TI Poker

The weekend started off with a nice day at Treasure Island. I love the BBQ Cobb Salad at their buffet, not to mention good Sushi and BBQ. The tournament didn't go well, getting knocked out early. I only really played 3 hands.

AQ vs AK early losing some of my chips, then just sitting and folding while the blinds went up and up and up finally waiting for a hand and get AA in the SB. The table had been very loose agressive so I was waiting for the raise with 3 callers to push over the top. It is FOLDED to me in the SB, the only time ALL night it folded to the blinds. I raised and the BB folded.. whee.

Finally down to 2000 chips with blinds at 100-200 I saw a good chance to get some chips when 6 limpers to me in the SB with 6-8 suited. I pushed and got called by 55. Flop is 4 to the flush but a 5. In an appropriate ending to my tournament the turn paired the board to leave me drawing dead, while the river gave me my flush for a wasted catch.

On Sunday I went down to the Hilton to check out their sports book and Sunday NFL party. I have only one thing to say about that.. OH MY GOD! Now first of all we are talking a 1000 seat theatre with every game on, free crap give-aways, $2 beer and $1 hotdogs. Now if that wasn't absolutely wonderful... I then found a seat in the real sportsbook which was SOOO much more comfortable, much less crowded and the drinks were FREE! I noticed in the TI and Ceaser's sportsbook last week that the drinks were free there as well.. must be a new thing in Vegas, and I LIKE IT! How much better does it get than Free Beer, Comfortable seats, all the games on TV, and a waitress bringing you the beers! I got and held onto my seat through both the 1 PM and 4 PM games before heading home up slightly from betting there.

Overall betting was mediocre this weekend ending it up just a tad with an AWFUL day in College (I think I picked too many games as I had 16 games and 2 teasers going) but got it all back in the pros even tho I lost my biggest bet of the day with Cincy tanking it vs Baltimore.

Tonight I have to work but am keeping an eye on the games on ESPN. I like Minny and the under in the early game and Oakland in the late game.

baseball picks today are on Cincy and Arizona.

Let's get caught up

I have been SERIOUSLY slacking lately with a lot of things. So let's get caught up and back on track.

1) New job - Going well, working in an office now. Getting paid regularly is nice and having weekends off is AWFUL nice.

2) Online Poker - Going great have run my $5 free money up over $650. I have won several big 180 person tournaments and am rolling right along.

3) Live poker - For some reason I just can't seem to win anything. Tournaments, cash games, everything goes bad. I just don't get it... Part of it is impatience, but part of it is just plain bad luck. I got knocked out of the Venetian tournament on Saturday after flopping a flush against 2 pair. We both have 7200 in chips with the blinds at 25/50. Early position makes it 500, this guy makes it 1500. I put him on a set, as he had limped pre-flop and the board was Ace high, or potentially AK with the K of diamonds but seemed rather unlikely. So I pushed. He called with 2 pair and his boat rolled right off on the turn. I just don't get how you call a 7200 chip bet with 2 pair on a 3 diamond board, WTF did he think I had! He even said "I think you flopped a flush but I have outs if you did". Sheesh... I will give it some more attempts this weekend to find the right mix of tournaments.

Now for some new stuff. I have gotten back into sports betting with a new adjusted Reverse Line movement system and some additional resources that have done fairly well. Doing $50 bets I managed to clear a little over $1300 in the first weeks, so liking it so far :)

Here are tonights bets: (now that I wrote them down it will surely lose)

MLB:
OAK vs BAL - OAK +100
PHI vs NYM - PHI +117
KC vs CLE - KC +125
ARI vs LAD - LAD -128
Chicago Cubs -145

WNBA:
Conn -9.5
NY Over 158.5
PHX under 177
LA +2 1H
LA/SA under 143.5

College Football:
Navy under 61.5

Finally... I am looking at getting a new mode of transportation. Something other than the nice reliable Camry that has gotten me this far...

http://www.bikez.com/pictures/suzuki/2005/21384_0_1_2_sv%20650%20s_Image%20credits%20-%20Suzuki.jpg

I am going to go in a few weeks to take a safety course and get my license, then go out for some test drives.. little nervous but excited! There isn't a better place in the world to ride a motorcycle that Vegas. Lots of backroads, easy parking for bikes, no rain, etc... can't wait.

TV and Poker together at last

With the writers strike TV pretty much sucked... and with the difficulty in getting money into online poker it also pretty much sucked. Well that has turned around a little.

TV has picked up some with BattleStar Galactica restarting for its final season in April (catching up with Season 3 on DVD right now.. WOO!). Just for the record the 4th episode of Season 3 may very well be the best SciFi episode of a TV show I have ever seen. I was actually tearing up when Adama started his "It has been an honor to serve with you" speech.

American Idol has restarted and BAH! These people suck! I can barely even stomach half the final 12 singing and the other half don't make me want to spend a dollar on Itunes for a song much less a real album.

Dancing with the stars is also back and I have always enjoyed this show, but even more so this year since Shannon Elizabeth is on there. Shannon is an avid poker player for those who don't know, and is semi-decent but not really GOOD. She played at the world series last year in several events and was at my tables a few times. We had some nice conversations about Allergies and dry air (I know.. I am smooth), and she turned out to be fairly nice. I am excited to see someone I have actually had a conversation with on Dancing with the Stars. On a related note.. I watched American Pie again and now it is just wierd, I thought she was super-hot when I saw her the first time on there... but now that I have seen her in Jeans and a pony tail she is just like any other girl. It really makes you realize how much the camera/makeup make a difference on these people.

My Dad is off on the Apalachian trail just passing the 1 month mark. He is expecting to finish it in about 5-6 months and so far so good. His trip history is on his website www.piperhiker.com and it is a really good read. I am going up with Estie to see him at the end of May and I wish him the best of luck and know we are all pulling for him.

I have been continuing my online tournament effort and managed to cash in 6 more multi-table tournaments including a 3rd in a 180 person tourney, I also cashed another 180, a few 45's and have run my total on there up to 240+. Not a bad run up from $5.

I took my newfound tournament skills to the Venetian on Sunday for the $150 and managed to outlast 10 of the 117 players before getting knocked out pushing all-in against Quad's. Would you believe I thought he would fold? yeah turned out he won't fold Quads.

I played the 4/8 Omaha H/L game for awhile afterward and ran it up to up almost 200 before I decided to change seats. The guy who took my seat went on to win about 400 more while I proceeded to lose all I had won and cash out just barely above even. Luck of the draw I know.. but it sucks.

Estie is heading to Florida for a week with her friends.... so I am going to be a poker playing fool while she is gone in a valiant effort to allay my grief over her being gone for SOOOO long. I just hope that I can survive :) I will surely miss her, but I know she will have a great time and I will live through it (I hope)

Quick Update

Well... been a month or so since I updated so let me give everyone the scoop. I have been hitting the 4/8 at the Bellagio about two to three times a week and playing pretty well. One bad session on a Saturday where I couldn't hit anything and they could cost me $600. (Yes.. I really lost 600 dollars in a 4/8 game), but a few 400-500 winning sessions brought it back up to the positive.

Work has made it tough to play during the week and weekends are so crazy sometimes.... I wish I could play more.

AllVegasPoker (www.allvegaspoker.com) had an inviational tournament last weekend and Estie (being a member) and me (being a lurker) went and played. She was out early but I finished in the money in 5th out of 36 for a 50 dollar profit.. not much but a start. I won $110 earlier in the day at 4/8 so bring my total for the year to a meager, but positive +620.

A month or so ago PokerStars gave me $5 for free... just enough to tease me back to their site, blah blah blah. So I decided to take them up on it and go play the 2 cent/4 cent tables. What better way to practice against suckout artists than there! Well I played for 6-7 hours over 3 days total and managed to run that up to $8.67. Not a bad run... at 4/8 that would have been over 700 dollars.

I wanted to work on my tournament game some as I felt like I was having issues adjusting to the tournaments now. I saw a 25 cent 4,000 person tourney so I gave it a shot and then I also noticed a few $1 tourneys, so lets rock em out and see what happens. Well low and behold I manage to win one of the 45 person $1 tourneys for $14 and decided to reinvest in a $4+$0.40 180 person tournament. Well bingo again 6th place (could have been much better but I have an issue I will tell you about later) and another $36 to end the day up to $41 dollars from $8.

The next day I went back and played that same $4.40 tourney again as well as the 25 cent 4K person and a few $1. I took a first and a second in the 45 person $1 tourneys and ANOTHER 6th in the 180 person $4.40. the 25 cent I went out in 400 and something out of 4,000 for 53 cents! Oooohhh baby.

Well after all is said and done my $5 has turned into $87 and I am improving dramatically at the tournaments...

I still have a few issues...

1) Not calling with big hands against bigger hands. Stuff like AK shrinks down real small against 3 all-ins.

2) Not tangling with the other big stacks.

3) Changing my game when the game changes. Several times I was cruising along, picking up blinds, pushing people off hands when the bubble bursts and they start playing back at me.

4) Not getting too creative too early. NOONE folds for the first 2-3 blind levels. So you have to sit back and be OK with folding... wait till the money means something after the first break when Antes kick in... then go after the money.

5) Steal with a hand I don't like. Most of the time when I raise I don't want/expect a call. If I *DO* get a call then I might as well have 2/3 instead of A/7. At least I won't get attached to my Ace or want to call the all-in if I get reraised.

6) Pay attention to the stacks, don't raise to 5500 when a short stack has 6500 and can snap on you. Keep your options open!

All in all improving and growing... time to step it up this weekend with the Friday night at Ceaser's for $150 and some 4/8 at the bellagio. See if I can make a little money to keep the momentum going.

Valentines Poker

Sunday was the annual "Partners Tournament" at Ceaser's. Estie and I played this last year and it was a lot of fun. You play 40 minute levels with each of you playing 20 minutes of it, from the same chips. So if you lose chips your partner has fewer to play with than when they left. Estie and I both played very well but we got outdrawn on a big hand and card dead the rest of the time meant we were out fairly early when QQ lost to KQ.

This tournament is a lot of fun to watch the interaction of couples trying to play poker from the same chips... You have girlfriends who are so afraid to lose the chips their boyfriend got them they won't ever play a hand, then you have guys coming to the table and trying to get a bunch of chips playing over aggressive. Not to mention friends playing together changing their play styles to not get knocked out since they are playing for their friend as well. It is a lot of fun.

When we were not taking our turn in the tournament we took our turn in the no-limit cash game. I figured out what my problem was in no-limit... I just need to get pocket Kings 5 times, Aces 3 times in a 7 hour period and I will be up for the day :) My Kings got cracked twice both times when I had a set. The tournament had a $230 buy-in and after 7 hours of no-limit Estie and I were up a combined $230. Coincidence? I swear we did not plan it that way! It just happened when we got to the cashier.

We started the day off with a lovely buffet at the Bellagio. It was very good, but we have to get Line passes next time, that hour wait was brutal. We then finished the night with a nice steak dinner at the Victorian Room at Bill's. It isn't going to win any awards for best steak, but it is pretty solid and the service was good as was the price. All in all a lovely valentine's day a few days early.

Monday and Tuesday are Estie's night out with the girls for their Ladies tournaments. I get to catch up some with my Battlestar Galactica and Star Trek, play some PoxNora and Warcraft and relax. Wednesday through Sunday we will probably be at the casino again.

Bankroll is up over 1000 now, and not having to use any of it for bills is awful nice! I want to get a few more wins under my belt and them move up to 8-16 at the Bellagio. The game looks less passive but still very very loose. I want to grind up to a 4K bankroll then settle in at 15-30 for awhile.

Bellagio poker room

It is absolutely amazing to me how one of the biggest poker rooms in vegas can be so absolutely awful. The Bellagio is the biggest room in Vegas sporting about 35 tables and is constantly sold out. They also sport the biggest games and the best action. However the room is crowded, the cocktail service is absymal, the waiting list is kept on a piece of paper (no electronic list), the paging system is a microphone which only works in the poker room, no comps, table felts are old and need repair. It is just absolutely amazing that a room of this nature is run this poorly... On the other hand their main competition the Wynn has nice electronic lists, you can get on from your room, you can get a pager and wander the casino (and therefore lose MORE money while waiting), best cocktail service in vegas, etc... So why play at the Bellagio? I will give you one reason, the players are AWFUL!

Most poker players are stuck up ego-maniacs. They won't play somewhere where they don't feel like they are the center of the universe. The Wynn makes them feel this way. The Bellagio does not. So what you get at the Bellagio are the players who don't know any better, while all the educated good players go to the Wynn. The Wynn games therefore are much tougher than the Bellagio games, so I suck it up, put my ego in my pocket and play the Bellagio.

On to some Poker. A nice 5 hour session at the Bellagio in 4/8 went very well. I felt I played almost as good as I could, 2 minor mistakes in 5 hours is an acceptable mistake rate. The cards weren't amazing, I only flopped 1 set in 5 hours, didn't really get any big draws in big pots. I did play the hands to their maximum value and my A's (twice) and K's (once) held up to avoid getting cracked. I ended the night up 430. I look back at the session and realize I didn't really get any extraordinary hands.. I just played the hands I was winning to the maximum and got out of the hands I was losing. Played hands in position where I knew where I was, and could control the pot... it was a masterful session if I do say so myself. I realized towards the end the table had NO idea how I was winning. One guy commented how lucky I was getting and how I always hit the flop (despite the fact I fold most hands after the flop), and another guy commented that I was playing so loose (despite the fact I played very few hands). I only raised premium hands and only showed down premium hands yet I would raise A's and get 7 callers. They would then fold on the flop just donating to the pot with no chance of winning.

How did I never Valet before?

The Bellagio self-park is located off the strip and is at the opposite end of the casino from the poker room. So I asked around to some poker friends and found out there was a north valet located off of Flamingo. I thought I would give it a try and WOW! It is about a 2 minute walk to the poker room, they take your car, and bring it back for free... just give them a little tip and bingo! So now I valet everywhere! it is so amazing! I can't believe I never did it before!

On the poker side of the news, I played the bellagio on Thursday night hitting up the 4/8 for 3 hours. They say that if a bad player hits good cards he can have a good day and win some money, especially in 4/8 which is basically a showdown game. However if a good player gets good cards, watch out. He will run over a table! Well I had one of those days... good cards, good flops, no suckouts. Just killed the table up 330 in 3 hours. It was absolutely sick. I just couldn't miss...

Friday night however was a whole different story, bad cards, bad flops. When the good cards came someone else was coming out better. I flopped flush over flush, 2 pair over 2 pair, set over straight, etc. To top it off, I was getting frustrated at the stupid people and I left my ipod at home. So I was pushing trying to make something happen and forcing hands that I had no business being in. So I dropped 350 in about 4 hours before Ifinally managed to straighten out my game, played better and won 250 of it back before cashing out at about 12:30 AM for a net loss of 95.

It just goes to show that in the long term the better player WILL win, you just have to not get sucked into the short term results. Heading back out to the bellagio again and we will see if I can maintain my focus.

Back on the wagon (again)

It has been awhile since my last post between Christmas, New Years, new job, old job, etc... I have been so busy and so distracted to say the least.

Let's talk about Poker first. I don't know if I will ever make the cut with no-limit and tournament poker. I don't know why, but i think there are parts of my personality and background that make backing down and accepting someone else has me beat as hard. I just feel like they are stupid (and they are) and I should win... it doesn't really work that way.

Limit poker on the other hand has a lot of math to it. When I can apply mathmatics and not emotion to the game it makes all the difference. So it is back to limit for me.

In the past 6 weeks I have played about 25 hours of 4/8 Limit and am up 475 dollars.

I have also played no-limit once, and 3 tournaments... Lost every time down 400 total.

So I am going to stick to limit, planning to move up to 8/16 in the next week or two and keep grinding away.

On the positive side, my wife is awesome at tournaments and doesn't have the ego I have... even though she is winning them left and right including a 3rd place finish in a 500 dollar buyin event at Binions which took home 3.5K. This was a huge deal as a good portion of the field was pro's including Kenna James, Barbara Einright (first woman at the WSOP final table), Chip and Karina Jett, and many others who I didn't know... it was one tough tourney let me tell you. 11 hours and she was out 3rd. I couldn't be prouder of her, and she really made an impact there and got a lot of notice.

The job is going very well, I moved from a contract to perm position into full time on Feb 1st. There is still no real Las Vegas office so I am working at home which is pretty nice I must admit. On top of that I also got a nice 6% payraise during my move to perm. I have to admit it is pretty nice not to have to worry about paying the bills anymore, that is definately taken care of now with both of us working. A big change from neither of us really working a year ago.