Strategy Article

For those of you who are not poker players, this won't interest you at all.... For those of you who are, and tell me you can't win at limit poker or ask me how I do... here ya go.

Limit poker is a math problem, a very long term one. Look at it as an investment, you want to put your 4 or 8 dollars into the pot when your long term return is positive. It may not pay off right now.. but it will pay off.

Pre-Flop:

Most low-limit games are passive donk-fests. Anyone who raises is immediately scary. You can use that to your advantage by playing position very aggressively. You also have to remember that you are only going to win at showdown with the best hand. Almost every hand in a good game will go to showdown, so you better have the best one when you get there.

Pre-flop If I am the first person into the pot and not on the button or Cut-off I will only enter with premium hands and play them for a raise. That means J's or better, AK, AQ, KQ suited, AJ suited and that is about it. This is also why I go to the bathroom when I am Under the Gun (aka UTG) or UTG+1.

I will loosen my standards as more limpers enter the pot. 4 limpers in the pot ahead of me (counting the Small and Big blinds since they always call) and I will expand down to any pocket pair, AJ off, high suited connectors like J10, etc. I am playing pocket pairs for set value only for the most part. It is rare to win with pocket's lower than J's unimproved.

Calling with Any 2... even something as bad as J/5 offsuit has a 24 to 1 chance of flopping 2 pair, and 63 to 1 of flopping trips. You are unlikely to win with anything less than that against 8 or 9 players, so call it 20 to 1 return and if you think you can get 20 bets out of the pot if you hit... call. Normally you can't. Limped to you with 8 callers gives you 8 to 1, 3 callers on the turn gives you 11 to 1 and 2 on the river gives you 15 to 1. You have to be really sure the table is going 5-6 to the river to make it worth calling with any 2.

However, take 9/10 suited... with 7 limpers. You have a 120 to 1 to flop a flush, 77 to 1 to flop a straight, 63 to 1 to flop trips, 24 to to 1 to flop 2 pair, and 8 to 1 to get 4 to the flush on the flop. So You can generally limp in with suited connectors above 4/5 simply for set, 2 pair, flush, straight possibilities and only need 5-6 callers to make it very profitable. You can probably do it with as few as 4, but I like to see at least 5 in the pot ahead of me unraised (counting the big blind but not the small) This assures me of having decent position on the field, and proper odds to call even if raised (since they will all call before me).

So the short version of pre-flop strategy is:

first or 2nd into the flop. Top 10 hands only, and for a raise or a 3 bet. NOTE: I will 3 bet with AQ or JJ even though often I am behind pre-flop because I want to play it headsup cheaply where I know where I stand instead of against 8 players calling and trapping me in a big pot I have almost no chance of winning after the flop. If I 3-bet and he caps I know most 4/8 players have AA KK or AK, and I will know which on how he plays the flop based on his previous play.

4-5 limpers any pocket pairs, high suited connectors, AJ+ off, KQ+ off.

6-7 Limpers any suited connectors above 4/5 (below 4/5 you lose some of your straight possibilities and it drastically drops their win percentage), Ax, Kx suited

NOTE: I won't play Ax or Kx from anywhere but very good position. So many 4/8 players will limp in with AK or AQ because "that hand never wins why raise", you be looking at a dominated ace more often than not, and they play so passive you will be spewing chips very often.

Post-flop if you pay attention to betting patterns you will know exactly what they have. As a general rule if they bet they have something. Normally top pair or better. If they 3 bet your raise, they REALLY have something, unless they are a maniac or better player they are looking at 2 pair or better, normally 2 pair though. The key to post-flop play is math. Once you figure out what they probably have... you can determine what you need to win.

When you are betting pre-flop pay attention to how many bets go in. The majority of dealers will tell you how many players are in on the flop. So if it is 1 bet all the way around and he says 7 players, you know there are 7 bets in the pot. Ignore the rake for now... So you have 7 bets in the pot and someone raises. You are getting 8 to 1 on the call (7 bets in pre-flop, his bet makes 8). If 2 people call before you you have 10 to 1... piece of cake if you just keep track of the bets as they go in. After the flop betting is done divide the bets by 2 (your turn and river bets are double size so you have to change the count a little), and generally subtract one small bet at 4/8 since the rake is about 4 dollars. So if it was 11 bets total on the flop, drop one bet to give you 10, divide by 2 to give you 5 and to call it is 6 to 1 if he bets (5 +1 = 6)

Here is an odds table with some notes:


Pot Odds:

2 outs (Pocket pair to trips) - 22 to 1
4 outs (Gutshot straight draw) - 10.75 to 1
5 outs (pair to trips or 2 pair) - 8.40 to 1
6 outs (2 over cards to top pair) - 6.83 to 1
8 outs (Open ended straight draw) - 4.88 to 1
9 outs (Flush draw) - 4.22 to 1
11 outs (OESD + 1 over) - 3.27 to 1
14 outs (OESD + 2 overs) - 2.36 to 1
15 outs (OESD + Flush Draw) - 2.13 to 1
21 outs (OESD + Flush + 2 overs) - 1.24 to 1

So now all you have is a math problem. How many bets are in the pot, what kind of odds re you getting and you make the right call based on your draw. If you do this consistently you will win money. If you want to get more complicated you can get into implied odds. (ie how many will call after you, and if you hit your hand on the turn how many more bets can you get, etc). You can also get into free card plays. The main reason you play from good position with suited connectors and Ax, Kx hands is because when you hit a good draw you can 2 or 3 bet the flop fromthe button. The other passive players are now scared to death and will check back to you. Letting you see 2 cards for the price you paid already on the flop.

When I have some more free time I will write another article on Table Image, player reads, chip stacks, etc.